There’s an art to achieving net zero emissions through renewable energy and decarbonization, but the canvas is more abstract than straightforward.
Net Zero raises many questions with few solid answers: Is it really happening? Is it even possible? Will there be enough money? Is there enough staying power on the part of states, companies, and organizations?
A recent World Bank report, Net Zero Energy by 2060: Charting Europe and Central Asia’s Journey Toward Sustainable Energy Futures, says that with decisive action, net zero energy is within reach in Europe and Central Asia (ECA). The World Bank has developed a model to project an “optimal least-cost pathway” for ECA to achieve a net zero energy target by 2060. The 23 countries included in the World Bank model produce almost a tenth of global greenhouse gas emissions.
So, it's complicated. Another recent report, in an article in RealClear World, says net zero’s days are “numbered.” Former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Oliver Blanchard poured water on the claim that net zero is a major growth opportunity when he told the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee that there would be a “substantial fiscal cost to achieve anything close to Net Zero.”
Of course, it’s going to be expensive, and no one really knows how costly it will ultimately be. Is it, as some say, a growth opportunity that will pay for itself? That would be nice but that is probably too optimistic given the state of play.
Looking locally, there is an organization providing a net zero pathway for the Pacific Northwest: Net-Zero Northwest: Technical and Economic Pathways to 2050 (NZNW) is a Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) project developed to provide “energy pathways, health impacts, and workforce analysis” to get regional stakeholders in the PNW four-state region (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana) on the path to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
CETI has many programs in place and many pathways to net zero. There are decarbonization models that provide blueprints for how PNW state policymakers might achieve a low-carbon, clean energy economy over the coming three decades.
CETI says: “We are currently engaged in the Net-Zero Northwest project, which will have three outputs: (1) updated deep decarbonization pathways analysis for the four Northwest states that incorporates the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act; (2) analysis of the jobs likely to be created or changed in the region; and (3) modeling of the decrease in pollutants due to decarbonization.”
In an ongoing project, the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE) selected CETI in a competitive process to provide technical support for an approach to develop an energy strategy for the state over the next two years.
According to ODOE, the development of the Oregon Energy Strategy will produce a final written report to the Governor and Legislature by November 1, 2025. The Oregon Energy Strategy “will be built through a step-by-step process that combines data gathering, technical analysis, scenario definition and modeling, and development of policy recommendations, integrated with an iterative stakeholder engagement process that ensures an inclusive and informed Strategy.”
The Institute’s Northwest Clean Energy Atlas project uses Tableau’s data visualization software to create an interactive atlas exploring energy data relevant to deep decarbonization in the Northwest. The challenges facing a rapid energy transition are complex and constantly evolving. Having access to detailed, up-to-date, and transparent energy system data is critical for policymakers, businesses, advocates, and the public to make informed decisions and track the progress of the clean energy transition.
The Northwest Clean Energy Atlas was developed with different data visualization tools, in particular Tableau’s platform of data analysis, mapping, and dashboarding. Users of the Atlas see visualizations with narratives that explain different sources and uses of energy throughout the Northwest over time.
Modeling demonstrates that the lowest-cost pathway for deep decarbonization in the Northwest involves “coordination and cooperation among all states in the region. At present, tracking and comparing how states produce, purchase, and use energy requires assembling data from a variety of resources that have differing levels of detail, accessibility, and transparency.”
CETI’s Northwest Clean Energy Atlas could serve as a source of aggregated data and insights that might drive more regionally-focused energy system planning and analysis. It has interactive tools to help explore energy data relevant to deep decarbonization in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington.
CETI researchers developed an initial set of data visualizations that explore greenhouse gas emissions data, energy resources and uses, utility service territories, and energy burden. CETI is building a huge database that keeps growing.
A recent paper from a group of scientists, published by Frontiers in Science, “The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization,” has some unnerving conclusions, including this one: “How confident are we that when we stop carbon emissions, we also stop global warming?”
A “key point” in the paper: Substantial uncertainty remains in the significance and magnitude of the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC)—the expected additional change in global surface temperature once we achieve net zero CO2 emissions.
For example, while a ZEC of 0 means no further change to global surface temperatures, other aspects of Earth’s systems, such as sea levels, will continue to change in a net zero world due to warming that has already occurred.
The bottom line? Current climate models do not adequately represent the full scope of complex and interdependent Earth ecosystem processes that determine ZEC.
There are many pathways to net zero, and CETI may have a good path in mind.
(he/him) William is a freelance writer-editor and former senior editor of the NY Journal of Commerce and former editor of Commercial Aviation Report. He currently writes about climate change in his blog, wrdforwrd.
